Thursday, September 10, 2009
Inflation
While statistically hiding for the moment, my gut feeling is that inflation is beginning to rear its ugly head. The positive GDP "growth" of the 2nd half of the year will more likely be Bernanke's permissive monetary policies finally gaining traction in the real economy. For the next year or so, I expect the cost of living for the average American to increase, while employment and wages continue to stagnate. If the banks are able to ramp up a debt bubble again, then the day of reckoning may be pushed further down the road. However, it's possible that the average American is tapped out. If this is the case, once the Federal Reserve withdraws its assistance, things may get really bad again. This is why the Federal Reserve will delay as long as possible in withdrawing the monetary stimulus and will continue to assert that inflation fears are well anchored.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Fringe
William Bell’s first invention was a prototype nanoelectric circuit. This device allowed for “the translation of neural impulses into electronic data….” Walter Bishop was the true creator however. In the near future, an apocalyptic event occurs. In 1991, it leads to a series of causes and effects that lead two dimensions to end up struggling for survival in the universe and it appears that unless human capacities can be developed before this event arrives, we will lose. Olivia has begun to have flashes of reality in between the two different dimensions suggesting that the merging is intensifying.
Walter mentioned that he built the time machine to go into the past and find a cure for an illness plaguing Peter. Mind you, Walter’s last name is Bishop and Peter was the rock upon which Jesus built his church. He writes in ZFT, “Our children are our greatest resource, we must nurture them and protect them. We must prepare them so they can one day protect us.” This has both a personal and larger meaning. Olivia and Peter, as children, have both been subjected to experiments to improve their paranormal powers.
The time machine, Walter corrected Astrid by saying it does not kill you, but instead does something far worse. This worse is what has happened to Walter’s mind. So, Walter had to convert a portion of his mind and memories into electronic data using his nanoelectric circuit and transfer himself as William Bell into a supercomputer. Building his body from the ground up, he created robotic technology to house his mind. He then proceeded to begin the process of experimentation that would hopefully produce human beings capable of withstanding this dimensional rift and conquer it.
So what happened to Walter Bishop in his lab in 1991 that left him in an insane asylum for the next 17 years? Walter’s past experiments with space time were catching up with him and his personality was beginning to disintegrate. Going mad, but knowing that he had to do something, he preserved the mission to conquer ZFT and part of his mind in William Bell. Wiliam Bell serves as the farmer who is preparing and cultivating the fields and Walter is more of the Jesus figure who will harvest and save. William Bell only includes Walter’s most practical side, which is now missing from his perspective. Bell’s personality believes that the logical course of action is to wage a scientific war. Walter remaining personality on the other hand seems to be the more intuitive and child-like, and hoping for a more idealistic outcome.
Walter mentioned that he built the time machine to go into the past and find a cure for an illness plaguing Peter. Mind you, Walter’s last name is Bishop and Peter was the rock upon which Jesus built his church. He writes in ZFT, “Our children are our greatest resource, we must nurture them and protect them. We must prepare them so they can one day protect us.” This has both a personal and larger meaning. Olivia and Peter, as children, have both been subjected to experiments to improve their paranormal powers.
The time machine, Walter corrected Astrid by saying it does not kill you, but instead does something far worse. This worse is what has happened to Walter’s mind. So, Walter had to convert a portion of his mind and memories into electronic data using his nanoelectric circuit and transfer himself as William Bell into a supercomputer. Building his body from the ground up, he created robotic technology to house his mind. He then proceeded to begin the process of experimentation that would hopefully produce human beings capable of withstanding this dimensional rift and conquer it.
So what happened to Walter Bishop in his lab in 1991 that left him in an insane asylum for the next 17 years? Walter’s past experiments with space time were catching up with him and his personality was beginning to disintegrate. Going mad, but knowing that he had to do something, he preserved the mission to conquer ZFT and part of his mind in William Bell. Wiliam Bell serves as the farmer who is preparing and cultivating the fields and Walter is more of the Jesus figure who will harvest and save. William Bell only includes Walter’s most practical side, which is now missing from his perspective. Bell’s personality believes that the logical course of action is to wage a scientific war. Walter remaining personality on the other hand seems to be the more intuitive and child-like, and hoping for a more idealistic outcome.
Stress Tests
The lows of March were excessive and the bullishness now is equally so. We’re not out of the woods yet, the market is simply correcting back to the 8k-9k range. I think it’s likely that 9k will once again prove a top for this market and that a medium strength correction will ensue. There are plenty of people who made the trade on the upside from the March lows that don't believe in this rally and will be taking their profits over the next month.
Monday, March 16, 2009
The Power of Ideas and the Human Psyche
Ideas constitute a very powerful pole of human existence. Through them, human beings choice of action becomes informed and can be deliberate. The origin of our faculty to contemplate ideas remains mysterious, and philosophers have grappled for ages over the true nature of ideas themselves. What are they? Where do they come from? While simple questions and despite many attempts, answers have tended to elude us.
In seeking a better understanding of ideas besides simply categorizing them as mere linguistic concepts or vainly positing the lack, if any, of substantiality, perhaps the correct path would be to examine the role of ideas in relation to other aspects of human experience. Examining organic life in general, we can see quite easily that less evolved species rely most commonly on engrained behaviors, as opposed to conscious action. Some of these are genetic, while others are habitual. The least complex life forms rely almost, if not completely, on genetically acquired behaviors. At this stage, adaptation to the vicissitudes of life is difficult, cumbersome and slow, putting them at an overall disadvantage in the contest of life compared to more adaptive organisms. The survival of the fittest leads at some point to organisms possessing not only a genetic memory but also a mental memory.
Since mental memory is an outgrowth of genetic memory, they are functionally interdependent faculties. The most fundamental mental memories share much in common with the character of genetic memories and are largely static and unvarying. They exist without language and are irresistible – akin to laws of nature. But the ball had started rolling and now existence would continuously push towards more and more improvements in mental adaptation to environmental resistance. Yet, this is not an absolute good, genetic adaptation, in virtue of being slow and laborious, provides a much higher likelihood that adaptations will prove advantageous and efficient in the long-run. So as the bounds of mental memory stretch farther and farther beyond its origin in genetic memory, as more and more conscious choice is allowed, possibilities for mis-adaptation drastically increase.
In the hopes of minimizing the damage of choice, superior memories develop that collect with particularity more intense and more focused stimuli. Those stimuli more likely to preserve life receive more attention, while those less likely to preserve life are minimized. Brains begin to have the ability to remember more, the ability to filter more, and the ability to contemplate more at once. The improvements ultimately have led in some cases to a variety of conscious experience.
To be continued…
Ideas constitute a very powerful pole of human existence. Through them, human beings choice of action becomes informed and can be deliberate. The origin of our faculty to contemplate ideas remains mysterious, and philosophers have grappled for ages over the true nature of ideas themselves. What are they? Where do they come from? While simple questions and despite many attempts, answers have tended to elude us.
In seeking a better understanding of ideas besides simply categorizing them as mere linguistic concepts or vainly positing the lack, if any, of substantiality, perhaps the correct path would be to examine the role of ideas in relation to other aspects of human experience. Examining organic life in general, we can see quite easily that less evolved species rely most commonly on engrained behaviors, as opposed to conscious action. Some of these are genetic, while others are habitual. The least complex life forms rely almost, if not completely, on genetically acquired behaviors. At this stage, adaptation to the vicissitudes of life is difficult, cumbersome and slow, putting them at an overall disadvantage in the contest of life compared to more adaptive organisms. The survival of the fittest leads at some point to organisms possessing not only a genetic memory but also a mental memory.
Since mental memory is an outgrowth of genetic memory, they are functionally interdependent faculties. The most fundamental mental memories share much in common with the character of genetic memories and are largely static and unvarying. They exist without language and are irresistible – akin to laws of nature. But the ball had started rolling and now existence would continuously push towards more and more improvements in mental adaptation to environmental resistance. Yet, this is not an absolute good, genetic adaptation, in virtue of being slow and laborious, provides a much higher likelihood that adaptations will prove advantageous and efficient in the long-run. So as the bounds of mental memory stretch farther and farther beyond its origin in genetic memory, as more and more conscious choice is allowed, possibilities for mis-adaptation drastically increase.
In the hopes of minimizing the damage of choice, superior memories develop that collect with particularity more intense and more focused stimuli. Those stimuli more likely to preserve life receive more attention, while those less likely to preserve life are minimized. Brains begin to have the ability to remember more, the ability to filter more, and the ability to contemplate more at once. The improvements ultimately have led in some cases to a variety of conscious experience.
To be continued…
Sunday, March 15, 2009
A Philosophical Musing
The fact of our existence mystifies and to this effect can be attributed all of human wonder. Unfortunately, rationality and human understanding do little to alleviate our confusion or provide substance to this “dilemma.” For in the end, when one traces any logical rationale back to its source, inevitably an absurdity presents itself. Yet life for many seems anything but absurd, and instead rather tragic.
For life with consciousness, the constant onslaught of uncertainty and suffering is – to those who truly perceive it – disconcerting. This disconcertion provokes the question - Why? Why is our existence inherently tragic? In other words, if there is a God, why would his creation be so profoundly tragic? If there is no God, how or why do we exist?
Ultimately, mankind has been unable to find a good answer, though not due to a lack of patient diligence. When answers have failed to present themselves, we have invented them out of whole cloth – only to later realize our self-delusions and become increasingly disenchanted. Is the answer nihilism or blind faith or something else? At the moment, the answer is anything but obvious.
For life with consciousness, the constant onslaught of uncertainty and suffering is – to those who truly perceive it – disconcerting. This disconcertion provokes the question - Why? Why is our existence inherently tragic? In other words, if there is a God, why would his creation be so profoundly tragic? If there is no God, how or why do we exist?
Ultimately, mankind has been unable to find a good answer, though not due to a lack of patient diligence. When answers have failed to present themselves, we have invented them out of whole cloth – only to later realize our self-delusions and become increasingly disenchanted. Is the answer nihilism or blind faith or something else? At the moment, the answer is anything but obvious.
What Needs to Change
We must, as during World War II, return to a state controlled economy to stabilize a situation that’s rapidly hurtling into something worse than the Great Depression. The stakes are in fact much higher than they were then; America has a lot more to lose. An aging population, high debt levels, and a more competitive international environment all conspire to make our prospects dire, if a free market solution is allowed.
Let me be frank, this is about maintaining US supremacy, not about ideology, fairness or economic theory. Once a national emergency is declared, the American economy will have to completely re-made. It’s relatively clear the changes that need to be made. Our economy is far too reliant on finance and consumption, and our manufacturing base is negligently enfeebled. But how can America be a manufacturing nation again? How can we compete with the likes of China and India with their far lower cost structure?
America has in the past and could in the future compete effectively, while still paying higher wages. The keys to this golden path are achievable. Making better products, making more innovative products, and most importantly emphasizing technology in every aspect from concept to ultimate delivery. Ford, in its heyday, paid far higher wages than the average wage and competed effectively because their overall production system was more advanced, more productive and produced better products.
America needs to return to this ideal. How can we? It seems hopeless in some ways, but it needs to start from the ground up. For far too long, an irrationally high percentage of wealth in this country has passed to the most wealthy and to wasteful government spending. The technical reasons are numerous – from the tax structure, to the types of businesses that have benefited from the past irrationality, to an overly aggressive foreign policy, and so on – but the justification for their perpetuated existence are both a sort of intellectually dishonest. As to the wealthy, it’s a sense of fairness and social Darwinism; with wasteful government spending, it’s a failure on too many fronts to succinctly describe.
But in other words, those with the most worked the hardest, are the most productive, and deserve the fruits of their accomplishments. While this may be a true statement – its utterance at present ignores a foundational element needed for it to be true now. It assumes that the amount of money distributed by our economy for each person’s contribution is fair from the outset. To these people, any graduated taxation destroys the perfection of the free market system. When the free market system is functioning properly, perhaps they are right, however, it’s clear that it’s not right now.
Ignoring my digression, America needs to return to fundamentals. What are these fundamentals? The top three are (1) Education; (2) Stimulation of Technology; and (3) Decreased Military Expenditures.
Education should from the elementary to the graduate level be completely overhauled. Our present system dates to the early 1900’s and John Dewey. It’s dated and does not provide the skills our people need to succeed. What we give them now is a one-size fits all approach to education, without any really rational reason as to why they would ever need to know much of what they’re taught. As such, many of the students today don’t take their education seriously – because there’s not much there for them worth knowing.
I propose that elementary school be privatized. There’s simply no need for governmental standardization. Of course, some kind of net for the poor will have to be present. As for middle school, this system needs to be completely nationalized. At this point, by the end of that 3 year period, each student will be on a track, either basic, technical, scientific, or liberal. By high school, for the higher levels, college level courses could easily begin being taught. In our current miasma, with students of all types lumped together, the lowest common denominator leads to many years of education being a process of treading water for those more gifted. By college, students will be pursuing their practical degrees and entering the work force afterwards. Graduate school will become the exception as opposed to the norm that it has now unfortunately become.
More on Technology and the Military when I have time...
Let me be frank, this is about maintaining US supremacy, not about ideology, fairness or economic theory. Once a national emergency is declared, the American economy will have to completely re-made. It’s relatively clear the changes that need to be made. Our economy is far too reliant on finance and consumption, and our manufacturing base is negligently enfeebled. But how can America be a manufacturing nation again? How can we compete with the likes of China and India with their far lower cost structure?
America has in the past and could in the future compete effectively, while still paying higher wages. The keys to this golden path are achievable. Making better products, making more innovative products, and most importantly emphasizing technology in every aspect from concept to ultimate delivery. Ford, in its heyday, paid far higher wages than the average wage and competed effectively because their overall production system was more advanced, more productive and produced better products.
America needs to return to this ideal. How can we? It seems hopeless in some ways, but it needs to start from the ground up. For far too long, an irrationally high percentage of wealth in this country has passed to the most wealthy and to wasteful government spending. The technical reasons are numerous – from the tax structure, to the types of businesses that have benefited from the past irrationality, to an overly aggressive foreign policy, and so on – but the justification for their perpetuated existence are both a sort of intellectually dishonest. As to the wealthy, it’s a sense of fairness and social Darwinism; with wasteful government spending, it’s a failure on too many fronts to succinctly describe.
But in other words, those with the most worked the hardest, are the most productive, and deserve the fruits of their accomplishments. While this may be a true statement – its utterance at present ignores a foundational element needed for it to be true now. It assumes that the amount of money distributed by our economy for each person’s contribution is fair from the outset. To these people, any graduated taxation destroys the perfection of the free market system. When the free market system is functioning properly, perhaps they are right, however, it’s clear that it’s not right now.
Ignoring my digression, America needs to return to fundamentals. What are these fundamentals? The top three are (1) Education; (2) Stimulation of Technology; and (3) Decreased Military Expenditures.
Education should from the elementary to the graduate level be completely overhauled. Our present system dates to the early 1900’s and John Dewey. It’s dated and does not provide the skills our people need to succeed. What we give them now is a one-size fits all approach to education, without any really rational reason as to why they would ever need to know much of what they’re taught. As such, many of the students today don’t take their education seriously – because there’s not much there for them worth knowing.
I propose that elementary school be privatized. There’s simply no need for governmental standardization. Of course, some kind of net for the poor will have to be present. As for middle school, this system needs to be completely nationalized. At this point, by the end of that 3 year period, each student will be on a track, either basic, technical, scientific, or liberal. By high school, for the higher levels, college level courses could easily begin being taught. In our current miasma, with students of all types lumped together, the lowest common denominator leads to many years of education being a process of treading water for those more gifted. By college, students will be pursuing their practical degrees and entering the work force afterwards. Graduate school will become the exception as opposed to the norm that it has now unfortunately become.
More on Technology and the Military when I have time...
The Saudi Prince and the US Economy
A few months old but still relevant...
Among the many comedies of daily life, the one that finds me today seems worthy of note. One of the powers that be in our new world order, High Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al Saud, addressed the public on television today in a Disneyland like affair, surrounded by a meticulously lighted open aired desert, and two well placed horses and a hut behind him. The High Prince himself was wearing an outfit that’s difficult to describe. I found it be a fantastical mix between Gilded Age industrialist, Bono, a European dandy, and a Cowboy cleric. What the hell does all of this mean? It’s one more example of how absurd our culture has become and how out of touch everyone has become from reality.
It’s hard to decipher what this purposeful contrivance represents? What is the Prince trying to convey with these antics? Unfortunately, it reminds me far too much of a modern day Marie Antoinette and what that portends is even more frightening. It seems to be the case that the eternal precipice of all nations hangs before us once again. Inevitably, the winners and losers of the states, regions, nations, and the world rise and fall. The dominos are presently tumbling down, and if I were in the same company as the High Prince, I would be feeling very ill at ease in my position.
What seems to be most lost upon the currently narcoticized people of the major economies is the very real fact that they are not as wealthy as they appear. The incredibly concentrated wealth that exists today may lurk in the Western nations and the United States currently, but wealth is incredibly mobile, far more so than throughout most of mankind’s history. This begs the question whether the typical models of wealth concentration truthfully reflect the real wealth of those countries and whether they can positively serve as a measure of the future fortunes of a nation.
The momentum to continue this cycle is declining. The creation of the Euro has provided the world with an alternative to the dollar and thus a competitor to The United States’ dollar that will lead to a diversification in currencies in general and the spawning of even more regional currencies. Once this occurs, the United States will be forced to pay higher rates of interest to finance its debt load. The dollar’s foreign exchange value will also generally decline. The likely scenario is that the lessons of the Great Depression combined with a government unwilling to significantly decrease its expenditures, will lead to monetization of these costs, inflation and the general debasement of the US Dollar compared to its historical value.
Among the many comedies of daily life, the one that finds me today seems worthy of note. One of the powers that be in our new world order, High Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al Saud, addressed the public on television today in a Disneyland like affair, surrounded by a meticulously lighted open aired desert, and two well placed horses and a hut behind him. The High Prince himself was wearing an outfit that’s difficult to describe. I found it be a fantastical mix between Gilded Age industrialist, Bono, a European dandy, and a Cowboy cleric. What the hell does all of this mean? It’s one more example of how absurd our culture has become and how out of touch everyone has become from reality.
It’s hard to decipher what this purposeful contrivance represents? What is the Prince trying to convey with these antics? Unfortunately, it reminds me far too much of a modern day Marie Antoinette and what that portends is even more frightening. It seems to be the case that the eternal precipice of all nations hangs before us once again. Inevitably, the winners and losers of the states, regions, nations, and the world rise and fall. The dominos are presently tumbling down, and if I were in the same company as the High Prince, I would be feeling very ill at ease in my position.
What seems to be most lost upon the currently narcoticized people of the major economies is the very real fact that they are not as wealthy as they appear. The incredibly concentrated wealth that exists today may lurk in the Western nations and the United States currently, but wealth is incredibly mobile, far more so than throughout most of mankind’s history. This begs the question whether the typical models of wealth concentration truthfully reflect the real wealth of those countries and whether they can positively serve as a measure of the future fortunes of a nation.
The momentum to continue this cycle is declining. The creation of the Euro has provided the world with an alternative to the dollar and thus a competitor to The United States’ dollar that will lead to a diversification in currencies in general and the spawning of even more regional currencies. Once this occurs, the United States will be forced to pay higher rates of interest to finance its debt load. The dollar’s foreign exchange value will also generally decline. The likely scenario is that the lessons of the Great Depression combined with a government unwilling to significantly decrease its expenditures, will lead to monetization of these costs, inflation and the general debasement of the US Dollar compared to its historical value.
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